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Success rates on Kilimanjaro: Can you trust them?

If a company advertises a near 100% success rate for getting people to the summit of Kilimanjaro, should you believe it?

This week I was contacted by a reader who had just got back home after an unsuccessful attempt to climb Kilimanjaro. The person had climbed with one of the top operators on the mountain. Indeed, it’s one that we praise highly in our Kilimanjaro guide. They are also pretty much the most expensive operator on Kilimanjaro too. Furthermore, this company was advertising almost 100% success rates on Kilimanjaro for getting people to the top.

In other words, pretty much everybody who took this route got to the summit.

The reason he got in touch was that he had not managed to get to the summit of Africa’s highest mountain. Nothing exceptional about that, of course. Lots and lots of people fail to reach Kili’s highest point, Uhuru Peak. Because, as anybody who has attempted it will tell you, it’s really hard.

Usually these ‘failures’ are due to altitude sickness (also known as AMS or mountain sickness). Bur fatigue, injury, illness and other factors can also prevent people from reaching their goal.

What was puzzling this climber, however, was whether these success rates on Kilimanjaro can actually be trusted? Particularly as he knew of other climbers who had climbed with this company who had also failed to reach the top?

So can you trust them?

The short answer to this is: no. There is nothing to stop a company simply lying. They can claim to have a very high success rate for getting climbers to the summit, even if it’s untrue. By doing so, they will inevitably attract more custom.

The companies are not obliged to produce these figures or even calculate them. What’s more, there is no way for anybody to check them either.

Thats not to say that all companies that advertise their success rates on Kilimanjaro are lying, of course. But the temptation to publish false figures, or to massage them, is huge.

They could for example, also include in their ‘success rate’ those people who got to Stella/Gilman’s Point. Though you get a certificate for reaching either of these points, and deservedly so, they are not the summit.

Or the company could discount those who start the trek but descend before actually attempting to reach the summit.

Or, of course, they could simply make all their figures up and invent a success rate of nearly 100%. After all, what’s to stop them?

And that’s the problem. When you have statistics that can’t be checked, the temptation for companies to massage those figures for commercial gain is just too great.

The fact that these figures could be false is not the main reason why I dislike them, however. It’s because I think they could be dangerous too….

Not just unverifiable – but possibly dangerous too

Imagine, if you will, a company that prides itself on having a high success rate for getting people to the top. An honest, decent company that doesn’t want to advertise success rates that simply aren’t true. Imagine, next, that you’re a guide working for that company. You’re a loyal, professional guide that wants to do the best he can for his employers. You also know that the company is proud of its almost 100% success rate for getting people to the summit.

So, of course you do your utmost to make sure everybody in your group gets to the top. But as a result, you could be pushing some of the climbers beyond their natural limit, and endanger them as a result.

And yes, of course you’d like to think that any guide would be sensible enough to recognise when they are pushing their climbers too hard. But remember that it’s quite a cut-throat world out there if you’re a guide. There are more licensed guides than there are treks running at any one time. As a result, competition for work is fierce.

So if you manage to get a job leading a trek, you’ll want to do your best. Now that should mean you want to help your clients perform the best they can and get as high as they can on Kilimanjaro. But it also means you should do so without endangering them by taking them beyond their natural limits. But that goal can be easily skewed if you have a company that advertises a near 100% success rate on Kilimanjaro. As one of their guides, you would feel pressure to make sure everyone in your group got to the top too.

Remember: your choice of trekking company will have only a marginal impact on whether you get to the top or not

Before I go, I think it’s worth reiterating something that we mention in our Kilimanjaro guide book and which sums up what we’ve been writing here. That you shouldn’t choose a company based on its advertised success rate.

Because the truth is, companies can have only a small impact on whether you get to the summit or not. There are other factors that are more important when it comes to determining whether you’ll get to the top or not. These include:

I believe that all the above factors have more of a bearing on whether you get to the summit than which agency you choose to climb with.

But it’s still better to book with a decent company, even if you don’t believe their success rates on Kilimanjaro

That’s not to say, of course, that you should just sign up with any old agency. Otherwise we wouldn’t have spent so long reviewing the main operators on Kilimanjaro in the guide book!

Because a decent trek operator will  make sure that the above list is all ticked.

For example, they’ll try to persuade you to take a longer trek on a route that has proven to be good for acclimatisation. (At Kilimanjaro Experts, for example, it’s no coincidence that many of our climbs are on the Alternative Lemosho Route. This offers climbers, in our experience, the best chance of acclimatising successfully. We also do not run treks of just five days, even though the park allows it on certain routes. Instead, we insist on a minimum of six days for each trek.)

Indeed, if I’m being honest, maybe this is one reason why we have such high success rates ourselves. It’s not because of anything we particularly do on the mountain. It’s more that we don’t run treks of such a short duration that are inevitably more dangerous and have lower success rates.

Decent companies will use good camping equipment to make sure you’re warm enough on Kili and get a good sleep. They’ll also make sure hygiene standards are maintained on the trek. This will minimise your chances of falling sick while on the slopes. And they’ll also employ only good, experienced guides. Guides who know how far to push you. when it’s safe to allow you to continue – and when you need to descend.

(A good company that charges a little more will also, of course, be more likely to treat their staff well. Porter welfare is, of course, a separate issue and one we’ve dealt with elsewhere on this website and in the book.)

Good companies really come into their own when things go wrong

As we point out in the book, when you sign up with a more expensive agency, it’s really for their experience and know-how. You’re also paying for their procedures when things go wrong.

Because, truth be told, there aren’t too many differences between a good agency and a bad one when everything is going well. It’s when people need to be evacuated because of illness or injury that you really see the difference. That’s when a good company stands out.

So if you’ve already signed up with one of the more expensive agencies that have a good reputation on Kili, and are regretting it because of what you’ve just read, well, don’t.

Because not only will you have a better experience on the mountain, you can rest assured that your company be treating and paying its staff better. And if things go very wrong for you, there’s a greater chance they could also save your life.

 

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